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Europe Day Marks 1 Month to Elections 05/09 06:14
BRUSSELS (AP) -- The European Union marks its annual Europe Day on Thursday,
but instead of the humdrum celebrations, all eyes are on the EU elections in a
month's time, which portend a steep rise of the extreme right and a possible
move away from the bloc's global trendsetting climate policies.
After decades in which the EU elections hardly caused a ripple, the June 6-9
voting is the most important in memory. It is being held at a time of
continuous crises on a continent which is experiencing a war in Ukraine,
climate emergencies, a shifting of geopolitical plates and fundamental
questions on the reach and purpose of the EU itself.
"It will be an existential fight," said Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian
prime minister and outgoing free-market liberal member of parliament who has
been in the thick of EU politics for over a quarter century. It will pit "those
who want less Europe and, then, those political forces who understand that in
the world of tomorrow you need a far more integrated European Union to defend
the interests of the Europeans," he said in an interview.
In naked political terms, it means those traditional socialist, liberal and
green forces that ran the EU parliament with the Christian Democrats over the
past five years against the surging powers of the hard nationalist right,
exemplified by leaders like Viktor Orbn of Hungary and Georgia Meloni of Italy.
The vote is the second-biggest exercise in democracy behind the elections in
India, as the 27-nation bloc of 450 million people will be picking 720
parliamentarians to serve them over the next five years with decisive votes on
everything from digital privacy rules to international trade policy and climate
measures.
But more than that, when the results are made public late on June 9, it will
be an indication whether the continental political drift will match the
rightward swing seen across much of the globe from Argentina to the Netherlands
and Slovakia.
Even if surveys diverge somewhat on the margins of the gains, they all point
toward one thing: The nationalist hard right and populist parties will make
strong gains.
"If I look at the polls all over Europe, more or less, I can always see the
same scenario," said Nicola Procaccini, Meloni's man in the European
Parliament, who typically considers himself as part of the center-right far
removed from the neo-fascist roots of his Brothers of Italy party.
He said likeminded parties "are rising more or less, everywhere." That
includes election victories in the Netherlands and Slovakia and polls showing
they lead the way in France with Marine Le Pen 's National Rally.
When it comes to the fundamentals, the EU battle could be seen as
Verhofstadt vs. Procaccini, with one insisting only more joint policies on
issues like defense are the answer to the EU's global challenges ahead, and the
other saying how the individual member states, with their cherished nationhood
at its core, should always come first.
While 27 nations with often inefficient individual defense programs have
left western Europe at the mercy of U.S. goodwill for much of the past half
century, Verhofstadt wants a full defense union to stave off a belligerent
Russia, and anticipate a non-committal United States if Donald Trump becomes
president in November. "It is not individual member states which will protect
the people," he said.
"And that's the reason why it's an existential fight. Because if we lose
this fight against the right-wing parties, we will be without defense, without
security," Verhofstadt said.
Procaccini instead centers on what many far-right parties see as
encroachment and downright meddling in national affairs by the EU's
institutions in Brussels and Strasbourg, France. They have specifically lashed
out at the EU Green Deal to keep climate change at bay and have specifically
targeted measures to force farmers into more environmentally friendly methods
as overbearing and overruling national decision making. They want to hark back
to the EU's timid origins some 60 years ago when cooperation was much more
voluntary and limited.
"We want to restore the original idea of Europe," Procacinni said.
It is unlikely the anti-EU parties will get a grip on legislative power but
a surge into third place behind the Christian Democrats and Socialists would
have a major impact. If the forecast of the European Council on Foreign Affairs
holds, the think tank says "this 'sharp right turn' is likely to have
significant consequences for European-level policies ... particularly on
environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU
action to tackle climate change."
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already softened some of
the climate rules and her center-right Christian Democrat European People's
Party, the biggest in the legislature, has moved rightward on migration on top
of climate policy.
With a wilting of the Green Deal, it would make sure that beyond facing
geopolitical crises, the EU would also face one of its own making.
Thursday's Europe Day honors the memory of Jean Monnet, one of the founding
fathers of the European Union, who once said: "Europe will be forged in crises."
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